Makerere University students are today voting for their 80th guild president. The voting follows 18 days of vigorous public rallies and campaigns.

Yesterday, fun and music covered the Freedom Square at the final rally while campaigns went through the night at the different halls and hostels.

Meanwhile, the voting which started as late as 9am at some polling stations, is moving on smoothly. Candidates and their supporters continue to campaign even at polling stations.

The race has attracted 8 candidates, three from major political parties. They are; Ivan Bwowe (UYD-leaning independent), Sarah Aseru (Uganda Young Democrats-UYD candidate), Nicholas Nanyenya (Independent), Eddy Kintu (Independent), Sam Komakech (Uganda People’s Congress-UPC), Lillian Aber (Independent), Julius Tabaro (Independent) and Phillip Musiime (National Resistance Movement-NRM).

Electoral Commission Chairperson, Michael Byemero says voter turn-up is expected to be about 14,000 voters. In the 2013 guild election, close to 13,000 students out of about 40,000 students turned up to vote.

What is likely to shape the outcome?
Money, welfare and academic issues, gender, and backing from halls of residence will be important determinants of today’s poll result.

Academic and welfare issues
The issue of divestiture of catering services, missing marks, practical skills and the ‘unpopular’ 60% tuition policy are top in the manifestos of the 8 guild presidential aspirants and will no doubt influence voting behaviour of those who base their choices on issues.
The issue of missing marks is prevalent and has at times made students fail to graduate yet they claim they sat for exams while lack of practical skills has allegedly rendered many graduates jobless for years.

The 60% tuition policy which requires privately sponsored students who can not pay full fees by the time of registration to only register for 60% of their course loads, will be a very important factor. Students will be looking a student who will engage with the University Council to lax what many call a stringent and an unfair policy, especially for students from ‘humble’ families.

The focus on divestiture of meals comes at time when the university is planning to dissociate from providing meals to students come next academic year. At the moment, only government sponsored students are getting their meals in their halls of residence.

The money factor
Candidates from political parties have received facilitation. This money has gone into printing posters, paying for candidates’ public address systems which have been moving around campus as well as paying people to shout and sing particular candidates’ praises at public rallies.
There have also been reports of students (voters) being given money although the people who had received it preferred anonymity.

Some camps have reportedly been spending more than a million shillings daily.
On top of facilitation from parties, candidates have got facilitation from families, friends and well wishers, including ministers in the government. For example, we can not rule out the possibility of UYD’s Sarah Aseru getting financial support from her father, local government state minister, Alex Onzima (who is NRM unlike the daughter).
Some independent candidates have however been unable to print even a single poster.

The ‘Hall’ factor
In the past three decades, Lumumba has dominated the position with 7 guild presidents, Nsibirwa (Northcote) and Mitchel with 6 each, University Hall with 5, Nkrumah and Africa with 3 each, Livingstone and Mary Stuart with 1 and Complex with none.

Complex Hall, home to the two female candidates, Lillian Aber and Sarah Aseru badly need this win as they struggle to produce their first guild president in the 80-year history of guild leadership. However, these will struggle to beat Lumumba which has dominated the guild presidency in the past three decades. Lumumba is home to UYD-leaning independent candidate, Ivan Bwowe.

The ‘female’ factor
The two female candidates, Sarah Aseru and Lillian Aber will struggle to replace fellow female, Anna Adeke. If any of the two female wins, it will be the first time Makerere will have two female guild presidents in a row. The winner will also be Makerere’s fifth female guild president.
Other female guild presidents were Juliana Norah Njuba (1987/88), Sarah Kagingo (1997/98) (whose guild was dissolved midway and taken over by Peter Ojur), and Susan Abbo (2007/08). Between 1987 and 2007, there was a decade-long interval between governments led by a female.

Opinion
Opinion polls which this reporter could not independently verify have put Ivan Bwowe in the lead while the first runner up position is expected to be tight between Sarah Aseru and Lillian Aber.
The winner of today’s election will not only replace Anna Adeke but will also head Makerere’s 80th guild. In last year’s election, FDC’s Anna Adeke polled 6,609 votes, NRM’s Boniface Okot garnered 2,718 while UYD’s Martin Segawa gathered 1,313 votes